An interactive guide to common misconceptions about UK crime and immigration statistics. Click on a claim to see the evidence.
Police in England and Wales recorded 71,667 rape offences in the year ending March 2025, a 6% increase on the previous year . These numbers have been rising for a decade .
However, the best measure for actual prevalence, the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), shows no statistically significant change in sexual assault in the last year . It does show a gradual increase over the last decade, from 1.5% of adults aged 16-59 experiencing sexual assault in 2014 to 2.6% in 2024 .
Police data measures reporting, not prevalence. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is explicit that police-recorded crime is not a reliable measure of trends for sexual offences . The rise is largely attributed to:
Rape remains hugely under-reported. Fewer than one in six female victims (16%) report the crime to the police, often due to embarrassment or fear of not being believed . Therefore, a rise in police figures likely reflects more victims coming forward, not necessarily a higher number of incidents.
Comparing raw numbers from different decades shows a large increase. However, the statistical and legal landscape has changed dramatically, making direct comparisons invalid.
The goalposts have moved. Comparing data from before and after major changes is like comparing apples and oranges. Key changes include:
The ONS explicitly warns that police data is not a reliable measure for long-term trends in these offences precisely because of these changes .
There is no official UK data that records the immigration status of people arrested for or convicted of rape. The Home Office has stated its data systems are not robust enough to publish this information , and the ONS confirms it does not hold this data .
The closest available proxy data is on the ethnicity of prisoners. As of March 2020, 82% of prisoners serving sentences for sexual offences were White .
This is an assertion made without evidence. It is impossible to prove a link when the data does not exist. Furthermore:
International comparison charts often use incorrect or mismatched data. For example, a common meme claims Germany had ~39,000 rapes in 2023. Official German police (BKA) data shows ~11,900 rapes and severe sexual assaults. The higher figure includes all sexual offences, inflating the number threefold.
Countries do not count crime in the same way. Official bodies like Eurostat and the UK's ONS warn against making simple comparisons for this reason. Key differences include:
Comparing raw police counts across borders creates a false and misleading "league table" that ignores these critical contextual differences .
The population of England and Wales has grown significantly over the last two decades . For a fair comparison over time or between different areas, statisticians use per-capita rates (e.g., crimes per 100,000 people), not raw counts.
Raw counts don't account for population changes. If a population grows, the absolute number of crimes can rise even if the actual risk to an individual (the crime rate) stays the same or even falls. Using raw totals overstates the change and gives a distorted picture of public safety.
Different datasets measure different things. "Rape" is a specific offence, while "sexual assault" is a broader category in the Crime Survey that includes rape, assault by penetration, and unwanted touching . Police data and survey data are not interchangeable .
Correlation is not causation. Simply placing two charts next to each other and drawing a conclusion is a classic statistical fallacy. Two trends can move in the same direction for entirely unrelated reasons. To establish a link, you need:
System-level data provides the most accurate picture of national patterns. The Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) shows that in the majority of rapes against women, the perpetrator is someone the victim knows (a partner, ex-partner, or acquaintance) .
Individual cases, however horrific, do not represent the whole picture. Relying on anecdotes or specific news stories to draw broad conclusions about national crime patterns is unreliable. To understand who is committing crimes and who the victims are on a national scale, we must use comprehensive, system-level data from official sources like the ONS, Ministry of Justice, and the Home Office .